PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers begin their second-round series against the Denver Nuggets on Monday (series schedule).
Before we get to Game 1, let's take a look at five important questions heading into the series.
1. Can Lillard keep it going?
Damian Lillard has been arguably the best player in the NBA playoffs so far. He's averaging 33.0 points, 6.0 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals and shooting 46.1% from the field and 48.1% from the 3-point line.
If Lillard can keep up this level of production, it will be difficult for any team to beat the Blazers. Lillard's career playoff production strongly indicates that as Lillard goes, so go the Blazers. In Lillard's 15 career playoff wins, he's averaging 28.1 points and shooting 45.2% from the field and 47.4% from the 3-point line. In his 25 career playoff losses, he's averaging 23.2 points and shooting 38.2% from the field and 28.6% from the 3-point line.
SERIES SCHEDULE
All times Pacific; x-if necessary
No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets
- Game 1 (at DEN): Monday, 7:30 p.m., TNT
- Game 2 (at DEN): Wednesday, 6 p.m., TNT
- Game 3 (at POR): Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
- Game 4 (at POR): Sunday, May 5, 7 p.m., TNT
- x-Game 5 (at DEN): Tuesday, May 7, time TBD, TNT
- x-Game 6 (at POR): Thursday, May 9, time TBD, ESPN
- x-Game 7 (at DEN): Sunday, May 12, time TBD, TV TBD
After Lillard won Game 5 with an iconic, 37-foot, step-back 3-pointer at the buzzer, he said he experienced an emotion most wouldn't associate with such a moment: fear.
"I was looking at it like, all right, we've got that out of the way. We got the first one. I was just ready to go to the next thing," Lillard said. "It was almost like a little bit of fear came in. I don't want this to be it."
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The last time Lillard and the Blazers had a moment like this, it was when Lillard hit another iconic shot, the 3-pointer with 0.9 seconds left to sink the Houston Rockets in the first round of the 2014 NBA playoffs.
Coming off the incredible high of that shot and a series against the Rockets in which Lillard averaged 25.5 points and shot 46.4% from the field and 48.4% from the 3-point line, both the star and his team floundered in the second round against the Spurs. The Blazers lost in five games, and Lillard averaged 19.8 points while shooting 40.9% from the field and 15.0% from the 3-point line.
What if Lillard can keep it going, though? What if he can take the first five games of these playoffs and turn it into one of his annual streaks where he can seemingly do no wrong?
In the 2017-18 season, Lillard had a 12-game stretch from February 9 through March 12, where he averaged 34.5 points and shot 47.5% from the field and 43.5% from the 3-point line.
In the 2016-17 season, during a 16-game stretch from March 12 through April 8, Lillard averaged 30.4 points and shot 46.8% from the field and 43.2% from the 3-point line.
And in the 2015-16 season, Lillard averaged 33.3 points and shot 46.9% from the field and 41.1% from the 3-point line during a 13-game stretch from February 8 through March 8.
This season may have been the best regular season of Lillard's career. He was solid from start to finish. But he didn't really have one of those stretches where he raised his game higher even than his normal All-NBA standards. So what if Lillard has saved his best for last this season? What if this year, his annual stretch of superhuman, MVP-caliber play comes during the playoffs?
2. Can Kanter play?
On Sunday in Denver, starting center Enes Kanter said he's questionable for Game 1 with a separated left shoulder.
We probably won't know until Game 1 tips off Monday if Kanter will play. But even if he takes the court, there's also the question of how effective he can be with an injured shoulder that Kanter said probably needs a month to heal. And with All-Star center Nikola Jokic on the other side, Portland needs an effective Kanter.
If Kanter isn't able to play or is limited, the Blazers will need Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard to step up. Each had moments in Portland's first-round series against the Thunder where they impacted games and helped the Blazers win.
Collins had 24 points and 15 rebounds and made 10 of 17 shots in 68 minutes in the series against the Thunder. He also played solid defense, especially in Games 2 and 4. Leonard had 18 points and nine rebounds and made 8 of 16 shots in 47 minutes in the five games against the Thunder. He made a big difference in Game 2 with toughness, rebounding, a timely 3-pointer, and a plus-minus of +17 in 15 minutes.
If Kanter can't go, and either Leonard or Collins has to play more than expected, their track record this season when called on to play extra minutes is solid.
Collins played 24 minutes or more in 11 games this season. The Blazers were 11-0 in those games and Collins averaged 10.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shot 61.2% from the field and 38.9% from the 3-point line.
Leonard played 24 minutes or more in six games this season. The Blazers were 3-3 in those games and Leonard averaged 12.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and shot 58.7% from the field and 50.0% from the 3-point line.
3. Will the Blazers' bench produce?
One sad statistic from Portland's first-round series is that Seth Curry was the leading scorer off the bench for Portland. It wasn't sad that Curry was the leading scorer. It was sad that his scoring average was just 5.4 points per game.
Portland has the lowest-scoring reserve unit in the NBA playoffs so far at just 18.8 points per game. They're not doing much well as a group, particularly on offense, shooting just 37.6% from the field and 31.3% from the 3-point line.
So far, the most-used five-man bench rotation of Curry, Evan Turner, Rodney Hood, Zach Collins and CJ McCollum is being outscored by 50 points per 100 possessions. The most-used five-man unit featuring all reserves — Turner, Curry, Hood, Collins and Meyers Leonard — is being outscored by 28.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Blazers' starting five was so good against the Thunder, the bench's lack of production didn't hurt Portland enough to put the series in question. But a better opponent awaits them in the second round, and the Blazers need more offense from their reserves.
Curry's 3-point percentage of 54.5% looks awesome. But why is he shooting only 2.2 3-pointers in 18.1 minutes per game? Collins is shooting 58.8% from the field, but he's only attempting 3.4 shots per game in 13.6 minutes per game.
The real culprits for the Blazers' bench woes in the first round were Rodney Hood and Evan Turner. They need to be better.
Hood led the team in minutes off the bench at 19.7 per game, but he was inefficient on offense. He averaged just 3.2 points and shot 27.3% from the field and 16.7% from the 3-point line. Turner scored three total points on 1 of 11 shooting in his 11.2 minutes per game in the first round.
If Portland wants to beat Denver in the second round, they need better production from Hood, Turner and the rest of their bench unit.
4. Can Portland sustain its defensive efficiency?
The Blazers ranked sixth in opponent points per game (105.2) and held the Thunder to fewer than 100 points in three of the five games in the first round.
Portland ranked seventh in opponent field-goal percentage (44%), was tied for fourth in opponent 3-point percentage (33.1%), tied for fourth in forcing opponent turnovers (15.2 per game) and was sixth in defensive rating, allowing just 104.4 points per 100 possessions.
The Blazers' defense was very good in the first round. Can they keep it up?
One factor that helped Portland in Round 1 was the Thunder are a bad offensive team. During the regular season, they ranked 16th in offensive rating, 19th in field-goal percentage, 22nd in 3-point percentage and 14th in turnovers.
Portland won't have the same luck in the second round. Denver isn't a world beater on offense, but they're better than the Thunder. They ranked 20th in points per game during the regular season, but that's only because they play at such a slow pace (26th in the NBA). They scored 112.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranked seventh during the regular season, and they're an above-average to mediocre shooting team, ranking 13th in field-goal percentage and 17th in 3-point percentage.
The Blazers will have their hands full against Jokic, who runs the Nuggets' offense and is one of the best passing big men in NBA history. They'll need to stay disciplined and not lose contact with the players they're guarding, because if they do, Jokic will find them for an open shot, whether it's a layup (Denver ranked first in points per possession on cuts) or an open 3-pointer or midrange jumper (Denver ranked 11th in point per possession on spot-ups).
5. Will Denver's guards hit their shots?
A big key to Denver's success is the contributions from the Nuggets' two stars who aren't named Nikola Jokic. When Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap have it going, the Nuggets are tough to beat.
Jokic is going to get his. He's too good to be held down. His production is almost identical whether the Nuggets win or lose. In wins, he averages 20.6 points and has a true-shooting percentage (an advanced analytic that factors in 2-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws) of 59.5%. In losses, he averages 18.9 points and has a true-shooting percentage of 57.7%.
It's a much different story for the Nuggets' other two stars. In wins, Murray averages 19.5 points with a true shooting percentage of 56.9%. In losses, his scoring average dips to 15.8 points and his true shooting percentage plummets to 47.7%.
Millsap's splits are even more dramatic. In wins, he averages 13.9 points and has a true-shooting percentage of 61.2%. In losses, he averages just 9.7 points and his true-shooting percentage is 46.3%.
Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. He's also the co-host of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast (listen here). You can reach him on Twitter @jaredcowley.