PORTLAND, Ore. — Tuesday night's game between the Blazers and Nuggets looms large for both team's playoff aspirations. Portland and Denver are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference with identical 35-38 records.
FiveThirtyEight.com, an analytics website that uses algorithms and statistics to cover sports, politics and other topics, gives the Blazers a 70-percent chance of beating the Nuggets on Tuesday night at the Moda Center.
Garrett Thornton of OregonSportsNews.com reports that the betting lines in Las Vegas have the Blazers as a 2-point favorite against the Nuggets and have set the over-under at 226.5 points, meaning the oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring, competitive game.
TUESDAY'S GAME
Denver Nuggets (35-38) at Portland Trail Blazers (35-38)
7 p.m., CSNNW, 620 AM
Both teams have been playing well for the past month, making the race for the eighth seed an exciting, competitive contest. The Blazers have the third-best record in the NBA during March at 11-3, while the Nuggets are ninth best with an 8-5 record. On the road, the Nuggets are 3-1 this month, with wins against the Bucks, Pacers and Kings. The Blazers are 5-2 at home in March.
The Blazers are outscoring opponents by 6.1 points per game in March (fourth-best in the NBA), while the Nuggets are seventh with a 5.5 positive net rating.
Nurkic: 'I have no issue with (the Nuggets)'
The game will have added meaning for Portland center Jusuf Nurkic, who was traded to the Blazers from Denver on Feb. 13 for center Mason Plumlee and a first-round draft choice. Since Nurkic joined the Blazers, they are 12-6. He is averaging 14.0 points and 10.1 rebounds over that stretch.
Nurkic said the game is big because of the playoff implications, but it's not a grudge match for him.
"I have no issue with (the Nuggets)," Nurkic said. "I appreciated what the organization did for me. I'm not a guy to make a drama on that. I'm not focused just about Denver. I want to win every game."
Lillard has led Blazers' resurgence
At the All-Star break, Portland was 23-33 and sitting in 10th place in the West, two games behind Denver and a game and half out of 13th place. Since the break, the Blazers are 12-5 and have won 11 of their past 14 games.
"We talked then about getting ourselves to this point," said point guard Damian Lillard, who has averaged 31 points since All-Star Weekend. "That it was going to be a lot of hard work if we wanted a meaningful game when it came time."
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The Blazers are suddenly playing like a 50- or 60-win team
Is Nurkic really this good? His track record backs it up
The Blazers' star point guard is averaging 29.6 points per game in March, third in the NBA behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Lillard has been ultra-efficient as well, shooting 48.6 percent from the field, 42.0 percent from the 3-point line and 89.3 percent at the free-throw line.
Lillard is also averaging 5.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Portland has outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per game while Lillard is on the floor, tied with Mo Harkless for the highest net rating on the team among players averaging more than 20 minutes per game.
WinnersView.com brings stories and statistics together to make you smarter about the sports and games you love.
Which team has the edge Tuesday?
Despite all the hype for Tuesday's game, Portland coach Terry Stotts steered away from calling it the biggest game of the season.
"(It's) just the next game," Stotts said. "It takes on significance when you're playing the team you're tied with, so yes, it's important. But after that one's over, then the next one is going to be important."
Here's a look at how the two teams have fared in March:
Offense
ADVANTAGE: Both Portland and Denver are elite offensive teams, but the Nuggets get the slight edge. A surprising reveal from the data below is how good the Nuggets are on the road. Denver has scored more points per game on the road than at home in March. One area to watch in Tuesday's game is the free-throw line. Portland's poor free-throw shooting could be the difference in a close game.
OVERALL AVERAGES
Offensive rating (points per 100 possessions)
Denver: 114.2 (No. 2 in NBA)
Portland: 111.6 (No. 3)
Points per game
Denver: 114.2 (No. 2)
Portland: 110.1 (No. 5)
Field-goal percentage
Denver: 48.9 (No. 1)
Portland: 48.6 (No. 2)
3-point percentage
Portland: 42.9 (No. 1)
Denver: 36.9 (No. 8)
Free throws attempted
Portland: 24.6 (No. 8)
Denver: 23.6 (No. 11)
Free-throw percentage
Denver: 82.4 (No. 3)
Portland: 75.7 (No. 21)
Assists
Denver: 26.6 (No. 2)
Portland: 20.4 (No. 28)
Turnovers
Denver: 13.9 (No. 16)
Portland: 14.5 (No. 22)
HOME/ROAD AVERAGES
Offensive rating
Denver (road): 116.3
Portland (home): 113.9
Points per game
Denver (road): 116.0
Portland (home): 113.4
Field-goal percentage
Portland (home): 50.7
Denver (road): 48.7
3-point percentage
Portland (home): 44.3
Denver (road): 30.9
Free throws attempted
Denver (road): 26.8
Portland (home): 25.4
Free-throw percentage
Denver (road): 91.6
Portland (home): 73.0
Assists
Denver (road): 22.8
Portland (home): 21.9
Turnovers
Portland (home): 14.7
Denver (road): 14.3
Defense
ADVANTAGE: The Nuggets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Though the Blazers haven't been good defensively this season, Portland has played like a top-10 defensive team in March. The Blazers have a clear advantage on defense.
OVERALL AVERAGES
Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
Portland: 104.1 (No. 7)
Denver: 110.4 (No. 25)
Points allowed
Portland: 104.0 (No. 15)
Denver: 108.8 (No. 21)
Opponent FG percentage
Portland: 45.2 (No. 12)
Denver: 47.8 (No. 26)
Opponent 3P percentage
Portland: 35.5 (No. 15)
Denver: 41.4 (No. 30)
Opponent 3P attempts
Portland: 23.1 (No. 3)
Denver: 26.5 (No. 14)
Opponent FT attempts
Denver: 18.8 (No. 3)
Portland: 23.2 (No. 18)
Defensive rebounds
Portland: 35.9 (No. 2)
Denver: 35.1 (No. 6)
Opponents points off turnovers
Portland: 15.4 (No. 11)
Denver: 16.2 (No. 17)
HOME/ROAD AVERAGES
Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
Portland (home): 106.6
Denver (road): 109.5
Points allowed
Portland (home): 106.6
Denver (road): 108.0
Opponent FG percentage
Portland (home): 45.6
Denver (road): 47.9
Opponent 3P percentage
Portland (home): 38.5
Denver (road): 45.6
Opponent 3P attempts
Portland (home): 23.0
Denver (road): 25.8
Opponent FT attempts
Denver (road): 17.3
Portland (home): 23.0
Defensive rebounds
Portland (home): 35.4
Denver (road): 35.3
Opponents points off turnovers
Portland (home): 17.0
Denver (road): 17.3
Tie-breakers favor Portland
FiveThirtyEight.com has the Blazers with an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs, while Denver's odds are set at 15 percent. One of the big reasons that Portland gets the nod in the odds is because of tiebreakers and the Blazers' remaining schedule.
Portland has won two of three meetings between the teams this season. If the Blazers win, they win the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Nuggets prevail, the teams would finish 2-2 against each other this season.
The next tie-breaker would be division record. Portland is 8-3 against Northwest Division opponents, Denver 5-8. The Blazers have five division games remaining, the Nuggets three. Unless Portland goes 0-5 and Denver 3-0 in those games, the Blazers will finish with the better divisional mark.
The third tie-breaker is conference record. Going into Tuesday's game, the Blazers are 22-21 against Western Conference teams. The Nuggets are 20-25. The Blazers' final nine games are all against West teams. The Blazers would need to win five of their final nine games to clinch the conference-record tiebreaker against the Nuggets.
Schedule is another advantage for the Blazers, who play seven of their final nine games at home. Denver plays seven of its remaining nine contests on the road.
Jared Cowley is a digital producer at KGW. STATS.com contributed to this report.
