PORTLAND, Ore. — It's been nearly two weeks since the Trail Blazers' season ended in a four-game sweep in the first round of the playoffs that nobody — fans, players, coaches, executives, media — saw coming.
It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on whether the 2017-18 season was a success, if the Blazers need a major shakeup and what the top priority should be this offseason. (Story continues below)
1. The Blazers won 49 games this season, the third-most of any team in the Western Conference and eight wins more than last season. But the playoff result was the same. Do you consider this season a success?
Nate: No. The playoff result was so dreadful, there’s no way you can consider the season as a whole a success. The regular season was a success. They earned the highest seed the franchise's highest seed since 2000 and won more games than most people anticipated. Damian Lillard was in the MVP conversation, and Zach Collins and Maurice Harkless showed promise. For those reasons, you can’t consider this season a failure. But it’s certainly not a success. This team, including its star player, talks about earning respect through postseason accomplishments. The series against the Pelicans was this Blazers group’s worst, and certainly most disappointing performance. Although the Blazers won more games, I don’t feel they’re much closer to competing for a championship than I did at this point a year ago. I think a lot of Blazers fans feel the same way and that’s what made the end of the season so discouraging. Fans were promised progress by the organization but the playoff result was the same.
Jared: In my humble opinion, this season was not a success. Consider it like this: Let's say a student has worked really hard all semester to get a good grade in his chemistry class. As the semester is about to wrap up, he's cruising along nicely with a solid B+ in the class. But then, inexplicably, he flunks the final and ends up with a D on his final grade. Should his performance that semester be considered a success? Of course not. The final may just be one test, it may just be one day of work, but it's worth 25 percent of the grade, so it means more. The playoffs are the same. The Blazers won 49 games. They earned the third seed in the West. They had a fun and impressive 13-game winning streak. But those all mean less now because of the Blazers' performance in the playoffs. It doesn't matter that it was just four games versus 82 games in the regular season. The playoffs matter more. If you flunk the postseason, what you did during the regular season becomes instantly less meaningful.
Orlando: The season ended a couple of weeks ago and I still wrestle with this loaded question. They exceeded expectations for the regular season. None of us predicted they would win 49 games. I would have laughed at you if you told me the Blazers would be the three seed in the Western Conference. That 13-game win streak really changed things. Rip City got caught up in it. Shoot, I started making plans for second-round coverage at Golden State. It was another layer of disappointment for Blazers fans. There were some incredible moments to remember (season opening 48-point win over the Suns, Lillard and McCollum drop 50 in about a week’s span, Lillard carrying Portland to victory against the Lakers, Suns and Warriors). Those were crazy games, but getting swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year stings. What makes it worse, Portland was the only team to get swept out of the first round this season. They’ve now lost 10 consecutive playoff games. The bar has been set and it’s in the postseason. They did some great things this season, but when the lights were the brightest, the Blazers failed to deliver. If this question must be answered in one word, I lean no.
2. With the disappointing end of the season, some fans are demanding changes. Do you think this roster or organization needs a major shakeup to ultimately become a Western Conference contender? Or is it just a matter of patience and some minor tweaks?
Jared: I don't see a path to contention for the Blazers right now, regardless of what they decide to do this offseason. I don't see a single move or even a number of moves that will make this team a Western Conference contender. Let's go with the most extreme hypothetical and say the Blazers decide to shake things up and trade CJ McCollum. I don't think the result of that move, whatever it is, would help bridge the gap between the Blazers and the top teams in the NBA like the Warriors and Rockets. Imagine the Blazers traded McCollum for Kevin Love and a draft pick. Does that make them as good as the Warriors? I don't think so. I'm not saying the Blazers can't improve. They can and that should be their aim. If they make productive trades, free agent signings and draft selections, they can get better. I just don't see a path to contention right now. I do think the Blazers fanbase, after another first-round sweep in the playoffs, would like to see some significant changes to the roster, though.
Orlando: The Blazers' disappointing playoff performance revealed just how far away this team is from being a contender in the West. I’m not a fan of blowing up the team, but there have to be some changes and it may require taking some risks. Yes, development has to be part of the game plan, but how long are you willing to wait? Damian Lillard has entered his prime and he’s going to need some help. Let’s see how Paul Allen and Neil Olshey respond this summer.
Nate: Let me focus on the organization because it’s obvious the roster needs a major shakeup. If general manager Neil Olshey honestly believes a measured approach is going to make the Blazers an NBA title contender before Lillard’s contract is up in 2021, then the Blazers need a change in leadership. This roster is flawed with a lack of perimeter shooters and versatility, which was exposed by the Pelicans. To make matters worse, they’re financially stricken with a mediocre roster already owed $110 million before free agency even takes place. That’s all on Olshey. He created this situation by going big and busting during the summer of 2016. If the Blazers choose to bring back Jusuf Nurkic and Ed Davis, they’ll likely be over the luxury tax and have the same exact roster that just got swept out of the first round of the playoffs. You never know what stars may be available in a trade this summer, or if the Blazers will have the assets, but that’s the only way Olshey may be able to balance this roster and become a contender on Lillard’s timetable. He must be willing to make significant moves to dig himself out of his hole.
3. What should be the Blazers’ top priority this offseason?
Orlando: For starters, get shooter and sign Ed Davis. Like most of Rip City, I’m a fan of Davis; he’s the type of player you need to be successful. He doesn’t demand the ball and does the jobs most don’t like to do. He’s a leader in the locker room too. He wants to be in PDX and his contract shouldn’t break the bank either. Get that man signed. The Pelicans exposed the Blazers' lack of offensive threats. They have to find another shooter who can knock down the long ball consistently or hope Dame and CJ can score out of double and triple teams for an entire series.
Nate: To me, there's no move in sight that would make the Blazers contenders next season. So, I think the top priority should be addressing their biggest need, which is finding consistent outside scorers. The Pelicans showed they were willing to let anybody outside of Lillard and McCollum take open shots. That's because they didn't respect the ability of the Blazers role players to consistently make those shots. And outside of Al-Farouq Aminu, no one else stepped up. Although Olshey didn't acknowledge this shortfall, several Blazers players did in exit interviews. Aminu called the Pelicans series a "wake up call." Evan Turner said the team needs to find an identity outside of Lillard and McCollum. He's absolutely right. So, the Blazers need to be aggressive in addressing that need. JJ Redick and Will Barton will be available in free agency. But given the Blazers potential financial limitations, they may not have the resources to bring players of their caliber to Portland.
Jared: The Blazers need more outside shooting threats. Portland had players this season outside of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum who shot well from the 3-point line. Moderately high-volume shooters like Al-Farouq Aminu (37 percent on five attempts per game), Shabazz Napier (38 percent on three attempts per game) and Maurice Harkless (42 percent on two attempts per game) performed admirably. For the season, the Blazers ranked 11th in the NBA in 3-point shooting. The problem was defenses didn’t consider the Blazers role players enough of a threat to rotate and defend them at the 3-point line. When Aminu and Harkless were in the starting lineup and both hitting their shots, it worked. But Aminu, Harkless and the rest of the Blazers’ role players weren’t consistent enough to make defenses second-guess their strategy. If the Blazers are going to continue to build around Lillard and McCollum, they need at least two outside shooting threats on the floor with them at all times. Right now, the current Blazers roster doesn’t have the personnel to make that happen.
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MEET OUR PANELISTS
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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