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How much of Washington's high gas prices are because of the cap-and-invest program

Washington's gas prices have risen significantly since the state implemented a cap-and-invest program, but how much is because of the program is a topic of debate.

OLYMPIA, Wash. — It's been 11 months since the Climate Commitment Act took effect in Washington. The new law aims to do things like reduce greenhouse gas emissions and our dependence on fossil fuels.

One way the state is doing it is by making the state's largest pollution emitters buy carbon offset credits at quarterly auctions. The Washington State Department of Ecology said so far the program has raised about $1.3 billion. The legislature will ultimately decide how the money is spent, but it will be invested in areas like clean energy and dealing with the impact of climate change.

But the new law has also led to higher prices at the pump. How much? Depends on who you ask.

What is the impact of Washington's Climate Commitment Act on Gas Prices?

Our Verify team first interviewed the Department of Ecology one year ago, just weeks before the Climate Commitment Act took effect. At the time, the department told us they, "really don't think it's going to be noticeable," when it comes to the act's immediate impact on gas prices.

One year later, Luke Martland, who is in charge of implementing the Climate Commitment Act, says drivers are likely paying at least 25 cents more per gallon because of the cap-and-invest program.

"It's hard to make that connection month by month or week by week," Martland said. "But we have estimated that we think the impact could be around 25 cents a gallon, maybe 27 cents a gallon. And these are only estimates."

Before the law took effect, Todd Myers with the Washington Policy Center estimated that drivers could be paying about 46 cents more per gallon.

"A year ago we predicted, and based on the Department of Ecology's own projections, that it would add about 46 cents a gallon. The prices, interestingly, turned out to be just about correct," Myers said.

Myers pointed to the track that Washington and Oregon gas prices have taken since the beginning of the year as further proof.

"We're currently about 40 cents a gallon higher than Oregon. At the end of last year, Oregon and Washington had virtually identical prices," Myers explained.

Since Myers and the Department of Ecology disagree on how much the act has driven up gas prices, we turned to another source, Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

"It looks like there was a direct impact," De Haan said. "In fact, just in Washington state did we see an abrupt sudden jolt higher in gasoline prices that's likely attributed to the cap-and-trade program being implemented."

De Hann too points to the way prices rose in Washington compared to a slower increase in Oregon.

"It's certainly a much bigger gap that has been relatively consistent since the start of the year," he explained.

While the Department of Ecology admits that the new law resulted in higher prices at the pump, they don't believe it's the primary factor at play. They argue other issues like supply and refineries being down also have an impact.

"We do think cap and invest has an impact on those prices," Martland said. "But it's just one of the factors that drives those increases. And now more recently the price is going down."

While prices have been dropping, De Haan says Washington drivers should expect to keep paying some of the highest prices in the nation.

"Washington will probably be very prime to continue being the 3rd most expensive state in the nation," he said.

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