PORTLAND, Ore. — The Trail Blazers have won 10 in a row, the longest winning streak in the NBA. It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on the emergence of Zach Collins, the strong play of Jusuf Nurkic and predictions for the next four games. (Story continues below)
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1. Is it time to start thinking about starting Zach Collins at PF?
Nate: There’s no reason to insert him into the starting lineup at this point. The team is rolling with its current rotation and there’s no need to change things. Zach Collins continues to show improvement and has shown tremendous versatility offensively and defensively. He’s definitely earned more minutes. But I think Collins also benefits from playing most of his minutes alongside Ed Davis. Those two are a good combination and inserting Collins into the starting lineup may disrupt his comfortability and add unnecessary pressure. Terry Stotts also likes to play Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu together. So while I think Collins has certainly earned more minutes, I don’t think putting him into the starting lineup would be the right move.
Orlando: There’s no doubt Zach Collins will be a starter at some point; I wouldn't be surprised if it’s as soon as next season. Right now, he’s in a good place, understanding his role and contributing off the bench. The chemistry he has with Ed Davis has been fun to watch. They complement each other and it’s producing results. Over the past five games, Collins’ is averaging more points, rebounds and minutes per game. He’s earning Coach Stotts' trust and you’re seeing him more and more in late-game situations. Which means he’s cutting into other guys' playing time. As he continues to develop, we’ll see him take the next step as a starter. This offseason will be huge in his development as he attempts to put on more muscle in the weight room. Let’s hope Rip City can come up with the perfect nickname for “Big Skinny."
Jared: No. Why would Coach Stotts mess with a good thing? The Blazers' starting lineup continues to perform at a high level, outscoring opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break. Even though Al-Farouq Aminu is slumping on offense, I don't think you change something that’s working. That said, Collins has been playing well. In the past five games, Collins' playing time has increased to about 20 minutes per game. He's shooting the ball well, including 55 percent from the 3-point line, and has strung together several solid performances. He's a versatile defender, showing the ability to defend in space against both guards and forwards, and is developing into a 3-point threat. But he's not quite ready to start. He's also not a good match with Nurkic. Maybe that will change, but it's been a disaster so far. The two have played only 33 minutes together this season and Portland has been outscored by 26 points per 100 possessions when they're on the court together. It's been even worse since the All-Star break. The Blazers have been outscored by 45 points per 100 possessions during the seven minutes Nurkic and Collins have played together in the past nine games.
2. Has Jusuf Nurkic’s recent play convinced you he can be a player the Blazers rely on night after night, like they did down the stretch last season?
VIDEO: Is Nurk Fever back?
Orlando: Jusuf Nurkic is the X factor for the Blazers. If he plays big, Portland wins more often than not. The team knows it, that’s why Stotts is coaching him harder and the team has changed his warm-up routine (according to Jason Quick). Damian Lillard talked to us at practice about the relationship he has with Nurk and how he’ll sit next to him on the plane to watch tape on previous games and coach him up as well. Nurkic is playing some of the best ball of his career lately and it’s reflecting in the team’s 10-game winning streak. The Blazers need him to be reliable in order to have success in the postseason this year. Don’t forget, he’s just 23 years old and the bumps in the road are part of the process.
Jared: I don't know if the Blazers can rely on Nurkic every night but he's reliable more often than not. It's good to note that Nurkic wasn't infallible last season, either. Blazers fans remember the highlight games, like the 33 points and 15 boards against the Nuggets or the 28 points, 20 rebounds, eight assists and six blocks against the 76ers. But he also had games where he wasn't so good, like two points and eight rebounds against the Pelicans or eight points and four rebounds against the Raptors. If you look at Nurkic's stats right now, he’s really playing well. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 15.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, two assists and 1.2 blocks. That's a lot of production for someone who's playing just 24 minutes per game. His per-36 averages are 22.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, three assists and 1.8 blocks per game. His biggest weakness from earlier in the season — missing shots at the rim — is a memory. Since the All-Star break, he's shooting 65.2 percent in the restricted area, a big improvement over his pre-All-Star numbers (58.2 percent) and a massive jump from what he did in October (43.2 percent). Nurk is back, folks. Enjoy it.
Nate: I’m still not convinced he can be the go-to post threat the Blazers need him to be by the end of the season. His numbers during this 10-game winning streak (15.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 54% fg) are very similar to the stats he put up during last season’s 20 games. But during the 10-game winning streak, Nurkic has only played in the fourth quarter of 7 games. That’s a signal that Stotts appears to be more comfortable with Ed Davis in the lineup at the end of the game than Nurkic. For Nurkic to be what he was last year, he must be a closer like he was against the Heat. However, this is the best Nurkic has played all season and if he can bring the effort we’ve seen recently every night, he elevates this Blazers team to a new level, as we’re seeing now.
3. Prediction time! Will the Blazers go into Tuesday's game against Houston with 13 straight wins? And do they beat the Rockets?
SEASON-TO-DATE PREDICTIONS
- Jared: 46-21
- Nate: 45-22
- Orlando: 43-24
Jared: LeBron James will be at the Moda Center tonight! He’s fantastic, but his team is banged up and not playing very well. Since the All-Star break, the Cavaliers have been decidedly mediocre. They're 5-6 and rank 12th in offense and 15th in defense. Blazers win at home. The Pistons come to town Saturday. They are a mess. Since the All-Star break, they're 2-8 and rank 28th in offense and 16th in defense. The Blazers should win easily. Portland travels to L.A. to take on the Clippers the next night. That's a tough game. The Clippers are 7-3, rank sixth in offense and ninth in net rating since the All-Star break. The winning streak ends in Los Angeles. But I think Portland bounces back and upsets the Rockets on Tuesday. Houston will be playing its third road game in four nights. and while the Rockets' have been phenomenal since the All-Star break, outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions (best in the NBA), the Blazers have been nearly as good, outscoring the opposition by 11.7 points (second best in the NBA). Portland will have two advantages: homecourt and a tired Rockets team. I think that gives the Blazers enough of an edge to pull off the upset.
Nate: Yes and no. The Cavaliers are still one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have given up more than 100 points in five of their last six games. With the way the Blazers’ offense has been rolling, I don’t see Cleveland stopping them. Detroit is really struggling right now and I think the Blazers get revenge for the loss earlier this season. The Clippers continue to prove doubters wrong and are still in the playoff mix. They’re 7-2 in their last 9 games and have been a top 5 offensive team during that stretch. But I’m still going to pick the Blazers and Damian Lillard to have another big finish in a crucial game. And even though the Blazers have been great, the Rockets are still playing like they’re the best team in the NBA. I’ll give the nod to James Harden and company.
Orlando: It’s not often I pick against LeBron James, but the Cavs are still trying to figure things out with a new roster and injuries. The Blazers have been almost unbeatable at home over the last month and a half. That’s why I like Portland to beat Cleveland and Detroit this week. Both teams beat the Blazers earlier this season and I think those are games they’ll get up for. I’m concerned about the Clippers game on the road. LA is clicking, winning nine of their last 12. Most are against bad teams, but they have wins over Boston and Denver. This will be a battle, but Portland will head into the Rockets game riding a 13-game win streak. That’s where it ends.
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WHAT IS 3-ON-3 BLAZERS?
Every Thursday, three members of the KGW sports team will answer three questions about the Blazers. You can join the conversation on Facebook during a live chat with our panel every Thursday afternoon at 3. Can't join us on Thursday? Not a problem. You can listen later on the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast.
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MEET OUR PANELISTS
- Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
- Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
- Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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