PORTLAND, Ore. — How are you feeling, Blazers fans? Are you doing OK?
After dropping the first two games of their first-round playoff series against the Pelicans, the Trail Blazers are in a precarious position heading to New Orleans for Games 3 and 4. History is not on Portland's side. After losing the first two games of a best-of-7 series, NBA teams have come back to win the series just seven percent of the time.
Oh boy.
It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on Portland's performance in the first two games, whether Terry Stotts should make lineup changes before Game 3, and revised predictions for the series. (Story continues below)
1. What has surprised you most about the first two games of this series?
Nate: Damian Lillard's struggles have been the biggest surprise to me. Others may argue Jrue Holiday's outstanding play is more surprising but we all knew he had the ability to do what he's done in the first two games of the series. On the other hand, I don't think anyone anticipated Lillard, who places so much importance on playing the best on the biggest stages, would flop in the first two game of the series. His shooting percentage is down, his assists are down and his turnovers are up. He has a –9 net rating for the series. He's obviously trying to do much on the offensive end and create something that's not there. Everyone knew New Orleans was going to do their best to get the ball out of Lillard's and McCollum's hands. But for Lillard to respond the way he has, by forcing up shots and driving into the lane without purpose, has been shocking. He had a similar start in the Memphis series in 2015 but played much better the rest of the way. The bad news for Blazers fans is that series ended in five games.
Jared: It's a combination of the excellence of Jrue Holiday and the ineffectiveness of Damian Lillard. Before the series started, I said for the Blazers to be successful, they'd need players other than Lillard and CJ McCollum to step up. For the most part, that has happened. I just didn't anticipate that Lillard would be this bad. I've seen at least two national writers pen articles following Game 2 asking if it's time to reconsider Lillard's status as one of the best point guards in the NBA. Good grief. Let's not get carried away. But there's no denying Lillard is playing his worst basketball of the season at the worst possible time. Much of that should be attributed to the dynamic defense of Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans are double-teaming and sometimes triple-teaming Lillard, but Holiday's sticky defense has been a big reason Lillard hasn't been able to break free and get going in this series. On offense, Holiday has been great. No Blazers player has been able to stay in front of him, and he's wreaked havoc in the lane and at the rim. If Portland can't get Lillard on track and find some way to slow Holiday, this series is over.
Orlando: The biggest surprise through two games has been the play of Damian Lillard. I thought there was no way he would follow up a rough night with another one. The Blazers have proven so far, that they are not good enough to win without Lillard playing at a high level. It’s been impressive to see Jrue Holliday elevate his game and he’s outplaying Portland’s top star (on both ends of the floor). The threes are not falling and It’s hurting them big time. He’s got to find a way to get to the free-throw line. That will open things up for him and the rest of the squad. Lillard is owning it and says he’s frustrated about the way he’s performed, so it’s up to him to save the series or it’s time to break out the brooms.
2. Should the Blazers make significant changes to their lineup or rotation before Game 3?
Jared: Terry Stotts has already said he's considering lineup changes. I'm 99.9 percent positive we'll see Maurice Harkless, who was excellent in Game 2, replace Evan Turner as the starting small forward, regardless of Turner's health. That's an obvious change. The more intriguing question is whether Stotts will continue to start Jusuf Nurkic, who has been ineffective on both ends of the court in this series. He's a defensive liability against the Pelicans' starting lineup, which is surprising because he's been so good on defense all season. But Nurkic hasn't been able to guard either Anthony Davis or Nikola Mirotic, both of whom pull him away from the paint on defense, eliminating his value as a rim protector. On offense, Nurkic doesn't stretch the floor, which allows Davis to stay in the paint and protect the rim. Ed Davis has been effective this series. So has Zach Collins. Does Stotts move one or both of those players into the starting lineup, shifting Nurkic to the bench? Probably not. I think he'll stick with what has worked all season rather than make a desperate, reactionary move after two games. But it's an intriguing question.
Orlando: There’s no big lineup or rotation change to make. This is who they are and this is what got them here. Every game is going to be close and it’s going to come down to a few plays down the stretch. Execution over the final minutes will be the difference once again. Now is not the time to panic or shake things up. They’ve had chances to win both games late and couldn’t finish. They have to be able to score in crunch time and get stops late in the game. It’s simple right now, loose balls and rebounds, who wants it more? So far, the answer is New Orleans.
Nate: I don't anticipate Stotts making any dramatic moves. Maurice Harkless should re-enter the starting lineup, which will give that unit a much-needed lift. His return is pivotal due to the length and versatility he gives them on defense, in addition to his 3-point shooting ability. I think we'll continue to see Zach Collins and Ed Davis get a bulk of the minutes off the bench, like they did in Game 2. With those two on the floor, the Blazers are much better suited to defend Anthony Davis and Nikola Mirotic. The biggest changes will be tactically on defense. I said before the series started that the Blazers should let Anthony Davis get his but limit the other scorers. But Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo have gotten into the paint with ease this series. The Blazers' guards must do a better job staying in front of both of them, and force tougher scoring opportunities. When they get into the lane, there are too many options for the Blazers to defend. If the Pelicans backcourt continues to break down the Blazers' defense, this series won't get back to Portland.
3. Now that the Blazers are down 0-2, are you sticking with your series prediction? If not, what’s your revised prediction?
Orlando: It’s not looking good for my prediction. I thought Portland was a lock to win at home. Boy was I wrong, but I’ve got too much pride to flip flop, I’m going down with the ship. I said Blazers in 6, so I need four straight wins. I’m sticking with my prediction. The threes will start falling and Damian Lillard leads an epic comeback. It’s going to happen, just wait and see Rip City. Just don’t take it to the bank.
Nate: I'm jumping ship. I picked the Blazers to win in 7 games but there's nothing I've seen in this series that makes me think they can be the seven percent that comes back from down 2-0. The Pelicans have been the clear-cut better team so far. I think the Blazers get one in the "W" column tonight and beat New Orleans in Game 3. The Blazers will be playing for their season and I think their effort will be better and they'll find a way to win another tight game. And I think the Blazers will win Game 5 at Moda to put a little bit of pressure on the Pelicans to finish the series at home in Game 6. But I think the Pelicans will be up to the challenge and finish it in Game 6.
Jared: I picked the Blazers to win in seven. I haven't seen anything in Portland's first two losses to make me think the Blazers can win four of the next five games between these two teams. So I will revise my prediction. I think the Blazers still make a series of this, but I think the Pelicans will win in six. I think Portland will split the next two games in New Orleans, win Game 5 back at the Moda Center and then the Pelicans will finish the series with a win in Game 6 at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. If you're looking for a silver lining, Blazers fans, this team has always seemed to perform best when nobody believes in them, and that's certainly the case right now.
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MEET OUR PANELISTS
- Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
- Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
- Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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