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Oregon could have 1,600 new COVID-19 infections a day by mid-August, OHA modeling says

Data from the Oregon Health Authority shows there could be between 600 and 2,300 infections per day over the next month.
Credit: KGW

PORTLAND, Ore. — New projections released Thursday by the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reinforce the need for wearing face masks and the importance of social distancing. 

The OHA released optimistic, moderate and pessimistic scenarios for what the pandemic could look like by Aug. 13. 

Here’s a look at all three scenarios: 


If transmission rate decreased by 10 percentage points from current rates:

  • New infections would decrease (About 600 per day) 
  • New hospitalizations decrease (About 17 per day)


If the current transmission rate continues:

  • New infections would rise steadily (About 1,600 per day)
  • New hospitalizations remain stable (About 27 per day)


If transmission rate increased by 10 percentage points from current rates:

  • New infections would be even higher (About 2,300 per day)
  • New hospitalizations increase (About 46 per day)

RELATED: Oregon reports 331 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

Health officials continue to encourage people to continue to wear face coverings, stay six feet apart and limit the size of social gatherings to bend the curve again.

RELATED: 59 active COVID-19 workplace outbreaks in Oregon

OHA said in its release, "These actions, along with the recent measures put in place by Gov. Kate Brown, will make a difference in the course of COVID-19 in our state."

Correction: This article previously stated cumulative infections for each scenario. Those numbers were not accurate.

RELATED: High school football in Oregon delayed indefinitely, games for other fall sports pushed back a month

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