08/08/2008

By BRAD CAIN and JULIA SILVERMAN  / Associated Press

Ballot measures sponsored by activists Bill Sizemore and Kevin Mannix — including ones dealing with tax cuts, tougher prison sentencing and teacher merit pay — could cost the state billions of dollars and hurt education and other programs, opponents say.

Critics cited new estimates by the secretary of state's office showing that among the initiatives on the Nov. 4 ballot, the biggest hit would come from Sizemore's Measure 59, to allow taxpayers to deduct all of their federal income taxes from their state returns.

The state estimates a $1.3 billion revenue reduction in the 2009-2011 budget should the measure pass, and $2.4 billion in the 2011-2013 cycle.

Meanwhile, Mannix's Measure 61 would require $1 billion worth of prison construction to make room for as many as 6,300 inmates who would be added to the Oregon prison population after new mandatory prison terms are enacted for property and drug crimes.

It also would cost between $161 million and $274 million annually to operate those added prisons once the law was fully implemented, the state estimates.

A union-backed coalition that's opposing the measures warned that if the measures pass, the state would have to cut spending on public schools, health care, human services, public safety and other programs supported by the state's general fund budget.

"These measures are a one-two punch that will put average Oregonians at risk," said Jessica Stevens, campaign manager for the Defend Oregon coalition.

Sizemore doesn't dispute that his tax initiative — versions of which Oregonians have rejected at the ballot box before — would reduce the money available for state programs.

But Sizemore said there's enough "fluff" in the budget to absorb the cuts, and then some.

"If you reduce taxes, it stimulates the economy, and the state gets more taxes than it would have otherwise," he said. "This gives people that create jobs the same rights that we currently give to lower-income people."

Mannix, meanwhile, said he thinks public officials on the Financial Estimate Committee are exaggerating the prison costs of his property crimes initiative while playing down the long-term savings of reducing rates of drug and property crimes.

"Voters understand that leaving meth dealers, auto thieves, identity thieves and burglars on the streets costs the state by giving us continued high crime rates," said Mannix, who successfully sponsored a 1994 measure that enacted tougher sentencing for violent crime.

Mannix also brushed aside criticism of his other initiative on the Nov. 4 ballot to dedicate 15 percent of lottery profits for crime prevention, investigations and prosecutions.

Measure 62 is being opposed by education interests and others, since lottery profits are now earmarked for schools and economic development as well as state parks and salmon restoration. The secretary of state estimated the measure would shift $100 million in the first year to crime prevention and other programs listed in the Mannix measure.

Another Sizemore-backed measure, to limit the amount of time students can take English as a second language courses, would force the state to spend an extra $500 million or so over the next two years. That's how much it would cost to make sure that Oregon meets the requirements of both the measure and federal law on English language learned, the state says.

New teachers and instructional assistants would have to be hired, along new classroom materials purchased, tutoring, after-school and summer-school programs added in order to have any hope of getting kids up to speed.

"Schools already don't have enough money," said Treasure Mackley, a spokeswoman for the opponents of Measure 58. "This will just take money away from our classrooms."

But Sizemore contends that his proposal will actually save the state money because "these kids will learn English more quickly when they are required to do so."

Sizemore has another education-related measure on the ballot, this one to pay teachers on the basis of their "classroom performance," instead of by seniority or experience. Measure 60 would cost $12 million to put in place, the state estimates, and $60 million to operate.

The money could be spent on hiring new staff to evaluate teachers or on developing more subject tests so that student test scores could be factored into decisions about teacher pay, the state says.