05/14/2008

Associated Press

A new study indicates that as 1,000 buildings in Seattle could fall down in a strong earthquake.

Mayor Greg Nickels wants to require property owners to do seismic retrofits costing up to an estimated $431 million, or up to $60 per square foot. The move, if approved by the City Council, could make Seattle the first city outside of California to mandate seismic retrofitting.

In the study that began last year, city engineers looked at 575 buildings from the outside and further that estimated 850 to 1,000 old brick buildings that date back to the 1930s would be at risk if a 6.7-magnitude earthquake occurred on the Seattle fault, which runs through the center of Seattle and Bellevue.

The Seattle fault is widely considered the most dangerous quake threat to Seattle. Scientists have predicted that a significant earthquake on this fault could cause widespread devastation and at least 1,000 deaths in the city because of collapsed buildings, fires and other infrastructure failures.

Most of the buildings the city considers especially vulnerable are in the neighborhoods of Pioneer Square, the International District, Capitol Hill and the area south of Safeco Field. Most were identified as commercial buildings, with about a third of them residential. A small percentage were places of public assembly such as churches and community centers.

On the list were First United Methodist Church downtown and the Union Gospel Mission in Pioneer Square.

Some property owners have already made improvements to their old buildings, but city officials plan to notify them all about the recommended new standards.

"Our main objective is public safety," said Diane Sugimura, director of the city Department of Planning and Development. "We're looking at how we can be better prepared or more proactive."

Sugimura presented the report Tuesday to the City Council's emergency-planning committee.

To preserve historic character and buildings that are important to neighborhoods, city planners say they hope to avoid forcing owners to demolish or close their buildings.

In 1970, after a building fire that killed 20 people, the city passed new codes forcing owners to install sprinklers or shut down. Many buildings closed.

City Council Member Richard McIver said he hopes the city will help property owners, by offering low-interest loans, for example.