02:35 PM PDT on Saturday, June 24, 2006

Associated Press

SALEM -- In the 2002 Republican governor's race, Ron Saxton saw his fortunes plummet largely because of abortion. The issue could dog Saxton again in Oregon's fall gubernatorial election.

AP photo

Ron Saxton, right, smiles as his wife, Lynne, hands out balloons during a political event in Seaside.

Four years ago, Saxton was leading in the polls over GOP rivals Kevin Mannix and Jack Roberts. Then social conservatives threatened to field a third-party spoiler candidate against Saxton for his refusal to support a ban on partial birth abortion. Saxton finished third.

This time around, Saxton scored a big victory in the May GOP primary. That came partly because he embraced laws sought by anti-abortion activists to require parental notification before teens can have abortions and to ban partial birth abortions.

With the GOP gubernatorial nomination now in hand, Saxton is heading into a six-way fall governor's race in which the abortion issue could complicate things for him.

On one side, he's facing a third-party challenge from former TV personality Mary Starrett, the only woman and anti-abortion candidate in the race. Starrett, who criticizes Saxton for his refusal to support an outright ban on abortion, is likely to draw at least some social conservative votes from Saxton.

"A true pro-life candidate believes that abortion kills an unborn baby, and that's not what Ron Saxton believes," Starrett said in an interview.

Saxton is drawing fire from the other side as well.

Oregon's leading pro-abortion rights groups are lining up behind Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a staunch defender of abortion rights. And they are targeting Saxton for defeat because of the stands he's taken favoring a parental notification law and a ban on partial birth abortion.

Nancy Bennett of Planned Parenthood PAC of Oregon notes that South Dakota and Louisiana this year have passed strict anti-abortion laws.

"Now more than ever, we want a rock-solid, pro-choice governor in Oregon," Bennett said. "Ron Saxton is not someone we can trust to protect a woman's right to choose."

Saxton's campaign spokesman, Felix Schein, said the Portland lawyer feels comfortable that the views he's espoused on abortion are in line with a majority of Oregonians. That is, Saxton backs additional limitations on abortion but doesn't advocate an outright ban on abortion.

"Do we think abortion is going to be an issue in the campaign? It's going to come up. Do we think it's going to be a defining issue? That seems unlikely," Schein said.

Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts agreed with Schein that for most Oregonians, issues such as the economy are more important than abortion in terms of who they will vote for. But he said a certain percentage of people adamantly oppose abortion and will cast their vote for the candidate who promises to support a ban on abortion.

"It could be an important issue to as much as 5 percent of the electorate," Hibbitts said. "And if it's 5 percent, that could be a huge problem for Saxton."

The power of the abortion issue was illustrated in the 1990 governor's race, when anti-abortion candidate Al Mobley got 13 percent of the vote, which observers said drew votes away from Republican contender Dave Frohnmayer and helped elect Democrat Barbara Roberts.

It remains to be seen what stance Oregon Right to Life, the state's leading anti-abortion group, will take in this fall's governor's race.

Gayle Atteberry, the group's executive director, says Right to Life won't formally endorse Saxton because he's not a "pro-life" candidate by the group's way of thinking. That's because Saxton won't embrace an outright ban on abortion, she said.

At the same time, though, Atteberry said Right to Life might "recommend" to its members that they support Saxton because he does back some restrictions on abortions.

She said Right to Life doesn't intend to support Starrett or any other third-party contender.

"We try to deal in reality, and the reality is that either a Democrat or a Republican is going to win the governor's race," Atteberry said. "And there's a very obvious contrast between the two -- Ron Saxton will sign pro-life legislation, and Ted Kulongoski will veto it."

Regardless of what position Right to Life takes in the race, Portland political consultant Gary Conkling said the abortion issue has left Saxton in an "awkward" position.

The conventional wisdom was that after winning the GOP nomination, Saxton would veer back to the political center to boost his chances of winning the general election in November, Conkling said.

But with Starrett playing a possible spoiler's role in the race, Saxton will need to work to hold on to the conservatives he won over in the primary and keep espousing some restrictions on abortion, Conkling said.

"He's sort of betwixt and between," he said. "It's a significant tactical issue, and it's one I'm sure he wishes he didn't have."