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Global warming expert: Society must adapt like wildlife in hotter climate

Credit: Associated Press

Flooding in Indonesia recently was just a sign of things to come in a warmer climate, global climate change experts from Texas warned.

by Seth Borenstein, AP Writer

Posted on December 3, 2009 at 3:27 PM

Updated Thursday, Dec 3 at 3:30 PM

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With the world losing the battle against global warming so far, experts are warning that humans need to follow nature's example: Adapt or die.
  

That means elevating buildings, making taller and stronger dams and seawalls, rerouting water systems, restricting certain developments, changing farming practices and ultimately moving people, plants and animals out of harm's way.
  

Adapting to rising seas and higher temperatures is expected to be a big topic at the U.N. climate-change talks in Copenhagen next week, along with the projected cost -- hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it going to countries that cannot afford it.
  

That adaptation will be a major focus is remarkable in itself. Until the past couple of years, experts avoided talking about adjusting to global warming for fear of sounding fatalistic or causing countries to back off efforts to reduce emissions.
  

"It's something that's been neglected, hasn't been talked about and it's something the world will have to do," said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Adaptation is going to be absolutely crucial for some societies."
  

Some biologists point to how nature has handled the changing climate. The rare Adonis blue butterfly of Britain looked as if it was going to disappear because it couldn't fly far and global warming was making its habitat unbearable. To biologists' surprise, it evolved longer thoraxes and wings, allowing it to fly farther to cooler locales.
  

"Society needs to be changing as much as wildlife is changing," said Texas A&M biologist Camille Parmesan, an expert on how species change with global warming.
  

One difficulty is that climate change is happening rapidly.
  

"Adaptation will be particularly challenging because the rate of change is escalating and is moving outside the range to which society has adapted in the past" when more natural climate changes happened, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco, a marine biologist, told Congress on Wednesday.
  

Cities, states and countries are scrambling to adapt or are at least talking about it and setting aside money for it. Some examples:
   -- England is strengthening the Thames River flood control barrier at a cost of around half a billion dollars.
   -- The Netherlands is making its crucial flood control system stronger.
   -- California is redesigning the gates that move water around the agriculturally vital Sacramento River Delta so that they can work when the sea level rises dramatically there.
   -- Boston elevated a sewage treatment plant to keep it from being flooded when sea level rises. New York City is looking at similar maneuvers for water plants.
   -- Chicago has a program to promote rooftop vegetation and reflective roofs that absorb less heat. That could keep the temperature down and ease heat waves.
   -- Engineers are installing "thermal siphons" along the oil pipeline in Alaska, which is built on permafrost that is thawing, to draw heat away from the ground.
   -- Researchers are uprooting moisture-loving trees along British Columbia's coastal rainforests and dropping their seedlings in the dry ponderosa pine forests of Idaho, where they are more likely to survive.
   -- Singapore plans to cut its flood-prone areas in half by 2011 by widening and deepening drains and canals and completing a $226 million dam at the mouth of the city's main river.
   -- In Thailand, there are large-scale efforts to protect places from rising sea levels. Monks at one temple outside Bangkok had to raise the floor by more than 3 feet.
   -- Desperately poor Bangladesh is spending more than $50 million on adaptation. It is trying to fend off the sea with flood control and buildings on stilts.
  

President Barack Obama and Congress are talking about $1.2 billion a year from the U.S. for international climate aid, which includes adaptation. The U.N. climate chief, Yvo de Boer, said $10 billion to $12 billion a year is needed from developed countries through 2012 to "kick-start" things. Then it will get even more expensive.
  

The World Bank estimates adaptation costs will total $75 billion to $100 billion a year over the next 40 years. The International Institute for Environment and Development, a London think tank, says that number is too low.
  

It may even be $200 billion a year or $300 billion a year, said Chris Hope, a business school professor at the University of Cambridge and part of the IIED study.
  

Nevertheless, Hope said failing to adapt would be even more expensive -- perhaps $6 trillion a year on average over the next 200 years. Adaptation could cut that by about $2 trillion a year, he said.
  

As much as three-quarters of the spending will be needed in the developing world, experts say.
  

"Those are not the countries that caused the problem," Hope said. "There's a pretty strong moral case for us giving them assistance for the impacts that we've largely caused."
  

Sending money from rich countries to poor ones raises questions of who will control the spending and whether it will be wasted or stolen.
  

As for helping plants and animals, British climate scientist Martin Parry said the world will have to create a triage system to figure out which living things can be saved, which can't and are effectively goners, and which don't need immediate help.
  

"It's a brutal way to go about things," Parry said.
  

And what about people?
  

Some islands, such as the Maldives, and some coastal cities will not be able to survive rising seas no matter what protections are put in place, said Saleemel Huq, a senior fellow at IIED who runs an adaptation center in Bangladesh. In those cases, he said, the world will need "planned relocation" of people and cities.
  

Parmesan said people are going to have to realize that "some areas are not going to be good enough to live in in the next 100 years."
 

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spewie said on December 3, 2009 at 3:41 PM

None of this would be happening if more people bought Al 'Blowhard' Gore's books. Perhaps there's about four billion too many people on this planet... Si Se Puede!

last__boyscout said on December 3, 2009 at 3:47 PM

More fairy tails from "the sky is falling" cult. Haven't these clowns heard the news?, the gig is up, we don't believe you any more.

mgambino79 said on December 3, 2009 at 4:07 PM

It's freezing outside. Well below average. Global warming is a scam.

skeptic said on December 3, 2009 at 4:40 PM

After seeing the climate-gate email, I have to question if global warming is real also. It is all about the money to be made.

nettobird said on December 3, 2009 at 5:42 PM

Glad to see most folks are aware of the B.S. here. I figure if there was an ice age, there may be a warming spell. It has nothing to do with my V-8 or a bunch of cows farting too much. Actually I think it is from Al Gore's hot air or maybe "Mike's Nature trick" to fudge the numbers wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

quantumsuicide said on December 3, 2009 at 6:16 PM

I find it telling that our beloved KGW.com has only run two stories on "Climate-Gate"...both critical of the release of the emails. SOOOOO...no one at the KGW news desk thinks the fact that Phil Jones, "The director of the embattled Climatic Research Unit in the United Kingdom is stepping down pending an investigation into allegations that he overstated the case for man-made climate change." The congress is getting ready to pass Cap & Tax, which would result in huge increases in energy costs for every American, and the leading research institute on the subject is now accused of "Cooking the Data", and that isn't important enough to KGW to run honest coverage? Say it ain't so Joe!

cruisingspeed said on December 3, 2009 at 9:20 PM

ManBearPig just cancelled his Hopenhagen speech. Careful Al, the sheep may be starting to look up.

cruisingspeed said on December 3, 2009 at 9:23 PM

"Desperately poor Bangladesh is spending more than $50 million on adaptation. It is trying to fend off the sea with flood control and buildings on stilts." Look it up, Bangladesh is getting bigger, not slipping 'neath the waves as this bozo claims. The country gains about 25 square miles a year.

first_last said on December 3, 2009 at 11:26 PM

Is global warming real? heck yes. Did humans cause it? Not really, but they effected it. The Earth is on a bigger time scale than your little reality show minds can handle. We're just stupid little humans floating around on a peice of rock that could kill us all any moment. Global warming? pfft. A slow gentle death we will likely not last thru. But seriously people stop using gas, there's not much left.

ptcvolunteer said on December 4, 2009 at 8:40 AM

Prepare for the inevitable? THAT I can get behind. Pass CAP & TAX legislation in a vain effort to terraform the entire planet and make "restitution" to the rest of the world (more of the BHO/Lib "America Apologizes" tour 2009) for being it's largest economy? NO WAY! I wonder who would be buying the industrial output and commercial resources of those "other" countries if the "evil" USA didn't exist? I'm all for getting away from fossil fuels because: 1) we are running out of them and need alternatives, 2) it's an environmentally "sound" thing to do, and 3) I am tired of not being able to see Mt. Hood through the haze over Multnomah County. I'm not going to "guilted" or "scared" into doing something just to make the "feel good" party happy and line the pockets of the evil Algore and his lying cronies...

speakthetruth said on December 5, 2009 at 4:16 PM

I guess it is fun to politicize climate change.