02:02 PM PST on Friday, December 12, 2003

By kgw.com and AP Staff

In the last two weeks, 15 people have died of influenza in Portland alone. That prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday to add Oregon to the list of states hardest hit by the flu.

But epidemiologist Dr. Fred Hoesly with Oregon Health Services, who compiled the death estimate for the Associated Press, said "there is nothing unusual in Oregon so far -- the number of deaths are average."

A child receives a flu vaccination. (AP Photo)

Hoesly told KGW on Friday that there could be even more flu-related deaths in the Portland area that resulted from complications. But only deaths that directly resulted from influenza or pneumonia were counted, he said.

Other state officials confirmed the numbers compiled by Hoesly, who is the state's top expert on influenza.

Oregon State Health Division spokeswoman Bonnie Widerburg told KGW that the 15 deaths were reported by the state to the CDC. Another state medical official, Dr. Paul Cieslak, confirmed the 15 deaths are listed among the CDC's latest nationwide flu statistics.

Hoesly believes the fatalities are trending downward; ten deaths happened in the first week of the Oregon outbreak, and only five in the second week. He hopes the decline will continue.

The epidemiologist contends, despite the unfortunate deaths, that the current flu outbreak is being hyped -- sending people into panic and causing a depletion of the flu vaccine supply.

"A lot of these reports are being overblown by the media and are not based on epidemiological fact," Hoesly said. "I think because of the excitement people become concerned and excessively worried."

Outside of Hoesly's Portland office however, others maintain the flu is anything but average.

While many more people have come in this year than last seeking flu shots, Portland Safeway pharmacy manager Sarah Schwab said she does not view the increased demand as a sign of hysteria.

"We're seeing many people now that I wish we saw two months ago — people at risk like the elderly," she said.

Schwab said all but one of the 1,100 flu vaccines she ordered are gone. "And I'm saving that one for someone who reserved it," she said.

Last year, nearly 60 vaccines were left at the end of the flu season.

In addition to the elderly's vulnerability, the flu has also taken a toll on children in the state. Some schools have been forced to shut down due to the outbreak.

In southern Oregon, Prospect School closed Thursday as their absentee list ballooned. In the days leading up to the closure, half the school's population of about 190 had been absent with the flu.

Nationwide, this flu season seems to be worse for children, and the CDC said it plans to watch flu complications among them closely. Health officials said Friday it had spread to all 50 states, swamping doctors' offices and clinics across the country as people try to get vaccinated.

"I think what we're seeing is a natural response to concerns about a serious flu season," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Julie Gerberding said Friday morning on NBC's "Today" show. "But we also need to remember that for almost everyone, flu is not such a serious disease."

"We don't need to panic or assume that the worst case scenario is going to happen to everyone. Most of us will get through this fine," she reassured.

Some experts predict this year's national death toll from influenza could easily surpass the annual average of 36,000 flu deaths. Health officials are unsure why the outbreak has hit so early and why it has caused so many problems here in the West.

(KGW health reporter Stephanie Stricklen contributed to this report.)