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New poll shows Kulongoski pulling ahead in gov. race

05:33 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Associated Press

A new independent poll suggests that Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski has pulled ahead in the Oregon governor's race, leading Republican challenger Ron Saxton by a margin of 47 percent to 36 percent.

AP photo

Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski is shown here at his re-election headquarters in Portland.

The Riley Research Associates telephone poll of 445 likely voters found that Kulongoski has made significant gains among independent voters, the fastest-growing sector of the Oregon electorate.

Fifty-three percent of such independent voters said they planned to vote for Kulongoski, up from just 32 percent a month ago. Just 21 percent of independent voters said they were leaning toward Saxton.

The poll also shows that Democrats, some of whom had been publicly lukewarm about Kulongoski's candidacy during the primary, appear to be coming home, with 74 percent saying they'd vote for the incumbent, up from 67 percent in September.

But Saxton, the poll shows, has lost ground among his core voters, with 68 percent of Republicans saying they'd vote for him, down from 75 percent in September.

Other polls have suggested a far closer race. A Zogby International/Wall Street Journal poll of October 19 found 47 percent of voters for Kulongoski and 43 percent for Saxton, within the margin of error of 3.4 percent.

The Riley poll, which was conducted between Oct. 19-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Forty-two percent of survey respondents were Democrats, 41 percent identified themselves as Republicans. The rest were independents or members of minor parties.

Riley said that since his firm polled in September, the governor has stepped up his campaigning significantly. And he said independent voters might be tilting toward the Kulongoski campaign as, "Ron Saxton's campaign has moved away from taxes to other issues -- that may have alienated some of them."

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