12:59 PM PDT on Thursday, May 11, 2006

By NICOLE DOLL, KGW Staff

Researchers have developed a 12-question quiz they say can help predict your risk of dying in the next four years.

(kgw.com graphic)

The test is for people 50 and older. The quiz was designed by Geriatrics Doctors at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center. It’s based on data involving more than 11-thousand Americans who took part in a national survey in 1998.

Funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging, the researchers analyzed the participants’ outcomes during a four-year follow-up. Their report appeared earlier this year in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

In this test - you want a low score. Zero to five points says your risk of dying in four years is less than four percent. With 14 points, your risk rises to 64 percent. Just being male gives you two points. So does having diabetes, being a smoker, and getting tired trying to walk several blocks.

Five years ago, 59-year-old Sy Beko of Tualatin wasn’t in control of his heath. He was a diabetic, who was not closely monitoring his diet.

"In 2001, I had a stroke," Beko said. “They think it had something to do with the diabetes and I got a clot up in the brain."

Sy had to do something to take control of his health. That’s when he met Dr. Miles Hassell of Providence Integrative Medicine. Together, they’ve been working to get Sy’s diabetes under control, with the use of medication, diet and regular exercise.

Sy took the Mortality Test and found, “I'm like a five, because I have diabetes, I'm a male and my age, there's the points, less than four percent chance (of dying)."

We also asked Dr.Hassell to give us his thoughts on the Mortality Test. He says numbers don’t tell the whole story. Other factors, such as diet and exercise weren’t included.

"You're the master of your own destiny in many, many cases, but you have to decide how much work it's worth," Dr. Hassell said.

Other critics warn the test doesn’t take into account other important risk factors like family medical history, blood pressure and cholesterol.

Take the Mortality Test:

1. Age: 60-64 years old 1 point; 65-69 2 points; 70-74 3 points; 75-79 4 points; 80-84 5 points; 85 and older 7 points.

2. Male or Female: Male 2 points.

3. Body-Mass Index: Less than 25 (normal weight or less) 1 point. (Calculate by multiplying height in inches times height in inches; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)

4. Diabetes: 2 points.

5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.

6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.

7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.

8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.

9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.

12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.

Check your score:

0 to 5 points less than a 4 percent risk of dying

6-9 points 15 percent risk

10-13 points 42 percent risk

14 or more points 64 percent risk.

Note: Researchers say the 1-point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.