PORTLAND, Ore. — After seeing their 13-game winning streak end against the Rockets, the Blazers' focus shifts to the final 11 games of the regular season and their goal of holding onto one of the top four seeds in the Western Conference. It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on the Blazers' role players, what we learned from the winning streak, and predictions for the next four games. (Story continues below)
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1. The Blazers’ role players have played well over the past month. Which of them has been most critical to Portland’s recent success?
Jared: I don't consider Jusuf Nurkic a role player, so I'm excluding him from consideration. I'm going to tag Al-Farouq Aminu, though Maurice Harkless is a very close second. Aminu's value as a consistent 3-and-D player can't be overstated. After 58 games (Aminu missed 13 games this season), Aminu is still shooting 40.3 percent on 4.8 3-pointers per game. In other words, he's proven his efficient 3-point shooting isn't a fluke. Aminu is the team's most versatile defender, able to switch effectively against all five positions, and is an elite post defender. Opponents shoot just 55.3 percent within five feet of the basket against Aminu, per nba.com/stats, which ranks third in the NBA among players who defend at least 15 such field-goal attempts per game (Nurkic is second). For context, Rudy Gobert, considered one of the best defenders in the NBA, allows 58.4 percent within five feet of the basket.
Nate: The craziest part about this question is there are so many guys to choose from. Who would have thought that in early February? Despite the career-best contributions from Maurice Harkless, I'm still going to go with Jusuf Nurkic. He's re-captured the Bosnian Beast persona fans fell in love with last year. And without coincidence, the Blazers are playing like one of the best teams in the Western Conference again. During the past 14 games, he's averaged 15 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. He's making 54 percent of his shots during that time, much improved from earlier this season. And he's been a dominant defensive presence in the paint, as seen during the Clippers and Rockets games. When the Blazers get these types of performances from Nurkic, alongside Lillard and McCollum, they are a different team. He elevates them to a new ceiling. What has made the Blazers' performance over the last month so special is that I had to consider so many different players.
Orlando: This is a tough one. It’s a different role player almost every night. I don’t consider Jusuf Nurkic a role player, so he’s got to be disqualified from this discussion. Ed Davis has been reliable all year and the most consistent player off the bench. Evan Turner has improved his 3-point shooting by nearly 60 percent after the All-Star break and Al-Farouq Aminu is playing nearly 30 minutes a game and averaging close to nine points and eight rebounds a game. You can make the case with all those guys, but I’m going with Maurice Harkless as the most critical to Portland’s recent success. His production has gone way up during the team’s 13-game win streak. Since the All-Star break, Harkless is shooting 20 percent better from long range, 14 percent better from the field and nearly the same from the free-throw line. Almost every statistical category has improved during the Blazers' run. Harkless went from a starter to the depths of the rotation where he was forgotten, to back in the starting lineup. He’s also doing it on defense, often guarding some of the top perimeter players in the league. He’s elevated his game and it’s one reason why the Blazers are playing at a higher level.
2. What did we learn about the Blazers during the 13-game winning streak?
Nate: We learned that this team is talented enough to not only win a playoff series but compete in a potential second-round matchup against the Warriors or Rockets. I've talked about before how I've never doubted the Blazers' belief that they could beat the best teams in the league on any given night. They've never backed down from Golden State and Houston. But they just never had the talent. Now that the potential of the roster constructed by general manager Neil Olshey has blossomed, the Blazers are playing at a level many didn't believe was possible with this group of players. They've shown they're talented enough to go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league. I'm not saying the Blazers would win a series against those teams. But I think it is realistic to think a difficult 6-game series is possible. That's a huge leap from where the Blazers were perceived before the winning streak. Many, including myself at that time, didn't think they could win a first-round series, regardless of opponent. But that perception has gone by the wayside for the time being.
Orlando: Damian Lillard nailed it during his post-game interview following the Blazers' loss to the Rockets. This is a complete team. They went down to the wire with the league’s top team with Lillard and CJ McCollum having an off night. This team has an identity and players understand their roles. I was asked if there is any concern about the Blazers peaking too soon, but I don’t think so because of the play of the bench and outside the Big 3. If it were just Dame or CJ carrying the team, I would be worried. Seeing Jusuf Nurkic’s improvement gives me reason to believe they can compete in April.
Jared: I learned that everyone, including me, should trust in this team a little more. Seriously, how haven't we learned that this is what Lillard and the Blazers do? Ever since LaMarcus Aldridge fled for San Antonio, the Blazers have played below expectations for the first couple months of the season, only to turn it around and play above expectations the rest of the way. Lillard has led the second-half surge each of the past three seasons with MVP-level play. The difference this season is the Blazers, even though they did play below expectations early on, never dug themselves a hole. Their record never dropped below .500 and they stayed in the playoff race and within a few games of the first four seeds in the Western Conference. That allowed their annual second-half surge to create a race for homecourt advantage in the playoffs instead of a race to make the playoffs. Consider this: If a lot of Blazers fans and pundits had their way at the trade deadline this season, Portland would have dealt CJ McCollum and gave up first-round picks to trade away Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard. It's time to put a little trust in Lillard and this roster (and GM Neil Olshey).
3. Prediction time! The Blazers play four games over the next six days. They’re home Friday against the Celtics, after which they play three straight road games, at the Thunder on Sunday, at the Pelicans on Tuesday and at the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?
- Nate: 49-22
- Jared: 48-23
- Orlando: 47-24
Orlando: The Blazers face the Celtics without Kyrie, again. I don’t think they lose to Kyrie-less Celtics at home. The Thunder have appeared to figure things out, winning six out of their last seven and OKC has been a tough team at home at 25-11. I think Portland misses out on the season sweep and OKC gets the win. Anthony Davis could be a problem for the Blazers defense, but I'll pick Portland to bounce back from defeat with a win in New Orleans. Even though it’s the second night of a back-to-back, I’m taking the Blazers over the Grizzlies, who are a half-game out of the league’s worst record. Blazers go 3-1 this week.
Jared: I'm really excited for Damian Lillard and the pending birth of his firstborn child, who will arrive any day now (the due date was Monday). That makes it difficult to pick these games because I have no idea which game or games Lillard will miss once his child is born. I do trust in Shabazz Napier to fill in ably when Lillard's out, but it's still not the same. That said, I think the Blazers beat the Celtics at home. The Celtics are beat up and have won just four of their past eight games. I think the Thunder will win Sunday. Oklahoma City has been playing well lately, winning six of seven, so I'll give them the advantage at home. I'll pick the Blazers to beat the Pelicans. New Orleans lost four of five after their 10-game winning streak ended, but they've rebounded to win their last three, including wins against the Celtics and Pacers. This is a tough road test for the Blazers, but I think an improved Maurice Harkless and Portland's defense will help Portland to the win. The Grizzlies are terrible and the Blazers will win that game.
Nate: I think the Blazers will go 2-2 over the next four games. I'll pick them to bounce back and win a grind-it-out game at home against the Celtics, who are just 14-13 in their last 27 games. And although the Blazers have owned the season series so far against the Thunder, I'm going to pick Oklahoma City to finally knock off Portland. The Thunder are playing their best since the Andre Roberson injury, winning nine of their last 12 games. The three previous matchups were close. At home, I'll give them the nod. As for the Pelicans, the Blazers have yet to show an ability to stop their healthy big man, whether it be Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins. Davis was the difference maker in the most recent matchup and I think he will be again. The Blazers will have no problem righting the ship against the Grizzlies.
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WHAT IS 3-ON-3 BLAZERS?
Every Thursday, three members of the KGW sports team will answer three questions about the Blazers. You can join the conversation on Facebook during a live chat with our panel every Thursday afternoon at 3. Can't join us on Thursday? Not a problem. You can listen later on the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast.
MEET OUR PANELISTS
- Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
- Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
- Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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