PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers ended the regular season as the third seed in the Western Conference and will play the New Orleans Pelicans in a best-of-7 series that begins Saturday at the Moda Center.
It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on Wednesday's win against the Jazz, how the Blazers can advance to the second round, and predictions for the first-round series against the Pelicans. (Story continues below)
1. The Blazers were on a four-game losing streak before closing out the regular season with a win over the red-hot Utah Jazz. How much did the win against the Jazz change your perspective about the Blazers heading into the playoffs? What were you encouraged by?
Orlando: I can’t imagine feeling good about heading into the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. Beating a team like the Jazz was definitely encouraging. It’s how they did it too. There wasn’t a point during the game where I felt the Jazz had a chance to win. That says something against one of the hottest teams in the league. That’s what was most encouraging — seeing the Blazers get up and hold onto a lead. A little momentum heading into the playoffs is nice and I think it carries over into Game 1 against the Pelicans.
Nate: I know it was just one game, but I feel much more confident about the Blazers' chances of advancing in the playoffs after seeing Wednesday night's performance against the Jazz. The Blazers looked like the team that captured the heart of Portlanders during the 13-game winning streak. The offense was free-flowing, role players were making shots, the defense was dominant and Lillard closed the door in the fourth quarter. Prior to Wednesday night's win, I wondered if the Blazers team that won 13 straight games had peaked a month too early and they wouldn't be able to re-capture that magic. I don't think the Blazers' confidence had faltered but mine did. The win against Utah re-instilled my confidence that Portland is a legitimate No. 3 seed and can play with anybody in the Western Conference. Utah finished the season winning 30 of their last 37 games but were just 1-2 against the Blazers during that stretch. The Blazers are back.
Jared: More than anything else, my confidence in the Blazers advancing to the second round of the playoffs is based on whether they have homecourt advantage. Because that question was answered before the Blazers' game started, last night's result didn't change much about my perception of the team. It was nice to see them finish the season strong, but I don't believe momentum at the end of the regular season — negative or positive — usually carries into the playoffs. That said, last night's game was certainly fun and a great way for the Blazers to end the regular season. It was encouraging to see the Blazers snap out of a team-wide shooting slump. I was also impressed by their defense, especially because it built on a strong defensive performance against Denver the game before. Portland's defense had slipped a bit prior to that. In the 11 games before the Nuggets game, Portland had allowed 106 points per game, three more than their season average. But in the final two games of the season, the Blazers gave up just 90.5 points per game.
2. Alright, now we’re talking about playoffs. What will be the biggest keys for the Blazers to advance to the second round?
Nate: It's crucial that Nurkic and one backcourt role player has a big series. Nurkic has been unstoppable against the Pelicans in the last two matchups, averaging 20 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. And the role player I'm looking to be a difference maker is Napier. He's averaging 10 points per game against the Pelicans and the three-guard lineup was the Blazers' most effective against New Orleans this season, with a net rating of +27. If the Blazers can get those type of contributions from Nurkic and Napier, they should win the series. Defensively, to me, the gameplan is let Anthony Davis get his points but make scoring opportunities difficult for everyone else. The Blazers don't have anyone who can defend Davis. He's averaged 36 points per game and shot better than 60 percent from the field in the two full games he's played against Portland. In the most recent matchup, the Blazers held the Pelicans outside of Davis to 40 percent shooting, and while that isn't great, they also forced 16 turnovers. They'll need to replicate, and perhaps improve on that defensive effort to win the series.
Jared: For the Blazers to beat the Pelicans and advance to the second round, players other than Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum need to make shots. The Pelicans have pretty good defenders in the backcourt in Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo. Anthony Davis is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. I think New Orleans will attack the Blazers on defense by pressuring Lillard and McCollum and forcing Portland's other players to beat them. Though I expect Lillard and McCollum to play well, I think the Pelicans will be effective in getting the ball out of their hands at times. When that happens, Jusuf Nurkic needs to convert in the pick-and-roll at the rim, and players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Shabazz Napier and Zach Collins need to hit open 3-pointers. Evan Turner needs to take advantage of mismatches in the post and hit the midrange jumper. If the Blazers' offense is getting contributions from more than Lillard and McCollum, I believe Portland has a great chance of advancing to the second round.
Orlando: All things considered, New Orleans is a favorable matchup for the Blazers. No doubt, Anthony Davis is among the best in the league and he will be a problem. Portland has to be able to flex on a team that can bang in the paint and gets lots of production when they push the pace. That makes New Orleans efficient and tough to beat. Jusuf Nurkic has to lead the charge when it comes to protecting the rim. On offense I expect to see more points scored. Both teams will put up more shots and the battle of the boards becomes factor. If the Blazers can find a 3-point stroke, they can run away with the series.
3. Prediction time: Postseason edition! We all know the matchup. Who wins and in how many games?
Jared: This won't be an easy series for Portland. Anthony Davis is the best player in this series and a tough matchup for either Al-Farouq Aminu or Jusuf Nurkic. Jrue Holiday is a good player and has played like an All-Star against Portland this season. If I'm looking at matchups, I give the edge to the Blazers in the backcourt, the edge to the Pelicans in the frontcourt, a slight edge to the Blazers in bench production and the edge to the Blazers in coaching. This will be a tough series, but Portland has homecourt and that gives them the edge. Blazers in 7.
Orlando: I’ll be conservative with my postseason prediction. Blazers protect home court and steal one on the road. Blazers take the series in six games.
Nate: This series goes the distance but I'm going to pick the Blazers to win in thrilling fashion. I'm going to say the Blazers win Game 1, Pelicans win Games 2 and 3, Blazers win Games 4 and 5, Pelicans win Game 6, and the Blazers win Game 7. These are two evenly matched teams, as shown by the fact that no matchup in the regular season was decided by more than 10 points. I expect it be a high-scoring series because I don't think either team has the players to stop the other team's best scorers. Both teams have star players who can carry the day but may also lack consistency from role players. Due to those inconsistencies, I don't see this being a series where one team gets hot and finishes off the other in four or five games. Both of these teams have winning road records, so I also don't think this is going to be a 7-game series where the home team wins every game. With that said, I think the Blazers having that extra game at home will be a big advantage if this series gets to Game 7, as I expect it will.
FINAL PREDICTION RECORDS
Congratulations to Nate and Orlando, who tied for first place!
- Nate: 53-29
- Orlando: 53-29
- Jared: 52-30
Submit a question for our panel to answer during the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast by clicking here.
MEET OUR PANELISTS
- Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
- Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
- Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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