PORTLAND, Ore. -- A prominent Oregon winemaker says Oregon's wine industry is headed for a fall, producing far too many prized pinot noir grapes for its own good.

But many of Bill Hatcher's compatriots in the vineyards and wineries say he's got it wrong.

Hatcher is managing partner with A to Z Wineworks in Dundee, which buys grapes wholesale and blends them under his own label. A to Z zoomed in 2001 during the last grape glut.

He estimates that by 2012 the amount of acreage planted in pinot noir grapes will be almost double what it was as recently as 2005, driving down prices and dealing a blow to a $1 billion industry that includes growers and 400 wineries.

He also cites the consolidation of wine distributors, which could inhibit fledgling labels, steady but hardly earthshaking sales levels, and a slowing national economy.

"If we planted nothing at all after this year, we'll still be looking at an enormous excess of fruit," he said.

Demand for pinot noir rose after the 2005 movie "Sideways," and the pinot grapes have proven a good match for the Willamette Valley's mild climate.

David Adelsheim, founder of Adelsheim Vineyard in Newberg and one of Oregon's wine pioneers, said an emerging trend is likely to keep the supply of grapes in line with demand.

"The vast majority of grapes being planted in Oregon right now are being planted by the wineries that will use them," he said, adding that the huge independent vineyards common in California are rare in Oregon. "Only total idiots are betting they can produce 100 percent more grapes than they can use or sell."

Consumer demand and grower flexibility should take care of any excess, said Jack Irvine, whose Portland accounting firm represents more than 100 Oregon wineries.

If the national demand for pinot noir doesn't soak up production, he said, growers will do what they've done in the past: prune excess grapes prior to picking. That ensures that all of their remaining grapes ripen sufficiently and that the total supply doesn't swamp demand.