Mid August through mid October is considered to be the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, four named storms have developed. The photo above shows T.S. Dorian back on July 24th. Even though tropical waters are quiet right now, the hurricane center is forecasting above normal storm development for the rest of the hurricane season, which does not end until November 30th.
NOAA says atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for storm development. Conditions in place right now are similar to those that have produced active tropical seasons dating back to 1995. Favorable conditions include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a strong rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems into tropical storms and hurricanes.
Forecast confidence calls for a 70 percent likely hood of above normal storm development in the coming weeks. The projection calls for 13 to 19 named storms, having sustained winds of 39 mph or higher.
To read more, click on NOAA's full report: www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html
Meteorologist Rod Hill