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Hurricane season forecast proving to be a dud

Hurricane season forecast proving to be a dud

by KGW Meteorologist Rod Hill

Bio | Email | Follow: @kgwrodhill

kgw.com

Posted on October 16, 2013 at 10:02 AM

Updated Wednesday, Oct 16 at 11:22 AM

Hurricane season for the Atlantic coast runs through Nov. 30, with peak activity expected each September and into October.  Yet at this precise moment, all is calm in the waters off  the east coast and the Gulf of Mexico. 

This year's forecast for a rough, above-normal hurricane season is turning out to be a bust, which is good news for those who own property near tropical shorelines. 

The apparent "over" forecast is what catches my eye because it is one of several seasons in the last years that has not even been close to correct.

I am not criticizing, but merely observing.  As a meteorologist that enjoys seasonal forecast work, I appreciate the challenge, but like to remind people not to get too caught up in the media headline that projects the future.

The average number of storms each year in the Atlantic is eight named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane.  So far, this season has seen ten named storms but only two hurricanes and no major classifications. 

The following link is an interesting read about the missed forecast that was based highly on warm ocean water temperatures.  Temperatures this year were above normal, but the water never turned angry.

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/30/what-happened-to-hurricane-season-and-why-we-should-keep-forecasting-it/

You can also search more information about this year's storms on the Hurricane Center's Website:  www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

Meteorologist Rod Hill, follow me @

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