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Experts say $5 gas now inevitable

11:06 AM PDT on Tuesday, July 1, 2008

By JOE SMITH for Kgw.com

AP graphic

Records are meant to be broken. Unfortunately for consumers, oil and gas prices are no exception.

On Monday, oil surged above $143 a barrel. It has some energy experts predicting $5 a gallon gas by Labor Day - a 'crude' awakening for consumers like Carolyn Little of Portland: "I think this is the first receipt I've seen over over $80."

More: Check Portland Gas Prices

It won't be the last for Carolyn or anyone else who drives.

"It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities at all to see a $5 price at the pump" said Mark Kralj, an energy analyst with Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland. Some believe we could hit $5 at the pump by this Labor Day.

"With saber rattling by Iran and Israel, that causes the prices to go up," said Kralj.

With gas now at more than $4 per gallon, many people have started to make lifestyle changes. Sean Halloran is a student. He's signed up for on-line courses this summer: "So I don't have to drive to school."

But at $5 a gallon, it means deeper sacrifices and that means less discretionary income. That's already having an impact on summer travel.

Triple AAA reports July 4th trips by car will drop 1.3% and air travel will drop by 2.3% from a year ago. Higher prices are already having a psychological impact.

"We're going to have to figure out a way to get along without oil, and we've finally hit the tipping point," said Little. Experts believe it's the tipping point that will push the already sluggish economy into recession.

"We account for about 25% of global oil," said Dave Ramberg with Portland Economic Insights. "If our demand completely collapses, it will definitely impact prices."

Others, including Alison Rossi, believe that until gas reaches $6 a gallon or more we won't put on the breaks.

"People and particularly politicians and corporations really won't feel the urgency to do something in terms of serious efforts towards alternative energies and conservation," predicted Rossi.

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