PORTLAND, Ore. — With four games left, the Trail Blazers have a three-game lead over the Jazz and Spurs, their closest contenders for the third playoff seed in the West.
The team's remaining schedule is a juggernaut, with road games against the Rockets, Spurs and Nuggets and a home game against the Jazz. Those four teams have combined to win 63 percent of their games this season. It's going to be a riveting finish to the regular season.
It's time to check in on the Blazers with another edition of 3-on-3, KGW's weekly Blazers podcast.
This week's questions focus on which team would make the best first-round playoff opponent for the Blazers, what the team needs to accomplish between now and the end of the season, and predictions for the final four games. (Story continues below)
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1. Of the following teams currently in the playoff standings below the Blazers — Spurs, Thunder, Jazz, Timberwolves, Pelicans — which would be the best playoff matchup for the Blazers in the first round? The worst?
Orlando: Just based on recent history, you gotta believe the best scenario is a first-round date with Oklahoma City. Portland went 4-0 against the Thunder this season. Selfishly, I’m rooting for this matchup too. Remember how chippy things got less than two weeks ago? That’s going to be a lot of fun to watch. I also think New Orleans is a favorable matchup for Rip City. You won’t stop Anthony Davis from getting his, but Portland’s roster is a little more complete. On the flip side, Jimmy Butler is close to returning from a knee injury – if that’s the case, Minnesota is a dangerous team that will be underseeded. If he’s healthy, Minnesota is a different squad with a lethal starting lineup. Oddsmakers at Bovada have the Blazers as underdogs if they face Utah. Portland has lost two out of three against the Jazz this season. Don’t forget about the Spurs either. They’ve gone 8-3 over their last 11 games. Lamarcus Aldridge is playing at a high level and that sets up for a great storyline back in Portland.
Nate: I think the Thunder would be the best matchup for the Blazers. I'm done overselling what the Thunder are. They can be great for stretches but for the most part, they're a slightly above-average team. All four matchups between the Blazers and Thunder have been close but the Thunder don't have a closer. They have multiple options but it doesn't appear their "big three" have figured out who is going to take a game over down the stretch. Meanwhile, Lillard and McCollum have excelled in the fourth quarter, which is a big reason why the Blazers swept the season series. And I'm going to say Minnesota would be the worst matchup for Portland, with the anticipation that Jimmy Butler will be back. They were the clear-cut third best team in the Western Conference before he got hurt. If I'm the Blazers, I don't want to have to come up with a game plan to slow down a healthy Minnesota team in a 7-game series.
Jared: Whichever team the Blazers draw in the first round will be tough. There's no easy outs in this lineup. This season, Portland has performed best against the Thunder, sweeping the season series and outscoring Oklahoma City by nearly seven points per game. The Blazers' offense has thrived against the Thunder, which is not the case against several of the other teams on this list. Portland averaged 109 points per game and shot 48 percent from the field against Oklahoma City. That seems like the best matchup. I also think a matchup against the Timberwolves would be exciting, and with homecourt advantage, I'd give the Blazers the edge, even if Jimmy Butler comes back. Portland has thrived on offense against Minnesota, too, averaging more than 110 points per game and shooting 49 percent from the field and 43 percent from the 3-point line. The worst matchup are the Utah Jazz. Their defense has given Portland fits this season. The Blazers are 1-2 against Utah and are averaging less than 100 points against the Jazz's suffocating defense, shooting 42 percent from the field and 33 percent from the 3-point line. Keep the Blazers away from Utah.
2. What's the one thing you want to see from the Blazers as they finish the regular season?
Nate: I'm going to focus on the court because the obvious top priority for the Blazers is getting healthy. But even focusing on the court, there are lots of areas I'd like to see the Blazers fine-tune before the postseason, from defense to consistent contributions from bench players. But the Blazers have to start making 3-pointers if they're going to have any success during the final week of the season and in the playoffs. During their last seven games, the Blazers have shot 27.4 percent from beyond the arc. During their 13-game winning streak they shot 38 percent, which was about on par with their season average. But during their last seven games, they're taking more threes and making less. On average, the Blazers are taking three more 3-point attempts during this seven-game stretch than they did during the winning streak and making three less treys. That's six extra empty possessions on offense per game. Combine that with a team not playing good defense, you get the inconsistencies we've seen from Portland since the winning streak.
Jared: The Blazers need two things to give themselves the best shot at success in the playoffs: health and homecourt advantage in the first round. The most frustrating thing about Portland giving away two winnable games against the Mavericks and Grizzlies is that if they had won those two games, they'd have already clinched the third seed. With everything all locked up, they could have rested their key players the final four games in preparation for the playoffs. But that didn't happen, so now the Blazers must win half of their remaining games to guarantee retention of the third seed. That must be the focus in these final four games. Obviously, Damian Lillard, Ed Davis and Maurice Harkless shouldn't suit up until they're healthy and won't risk further injury by playing. They won't win a playoff series without Lillard. But I also think they’ll get knocked out in the first round if they don't have homecourt advantage. Imagine if the Blazers slipped to fifth and had to play the Spurs or Jazz in the first round without homecourt advantage. Yikes. Retaining their hold on the third seed is paramount. What I need to see from the Blazers as they finish the regular season is two more wins.
Orlando: This became an easy answer following the Blazers' loss to the Mavericks. I want to see a healthy Damian Lillard. If he’s not right, this season is over. The Blazers aren’t winning a playoff series without him. Period. Let’s hope the ankle is OK and he’s back on the floor later this week. I don’t need to see him play major minutes, but I want to see a healthy Lillard. Same goes for Ed Davis and Maurice Harkless. That’s what I want to see by the time they finish the regular season. (Story continues below)
3. Prediction time! The Blazers play at the Rockets on Thursday, at the Spurs on Saturday, at the Nuggets on Monday and return home to face the Jazz on Wednesday. Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose? Where do they end up in the playoff picture?
Jared: It won't be easy but I predict the Blazers will go 2-2, get to 50 wins and secure the three seed. Damian Lillard is day-to-day and expected to miss the Rockets game. I'm curious if Houston, which already secured the No. 1 seed in the West, will finally start resting their core players before the playoffs. I'm guessing they will. It doesn't make any sense for them to keep running those guys out there when there's nothing left to play for during the regular season other than momentum. I think the Rockets rest their best and the Blazers win. The Spurs are 31-8 at home this season, the third-best home record in the NBA. They're too tough at home, so I'm picking the Spurs to win. Denver has won three in a row. They're going hard after one of those final playoff spots in the West. But I'm going with my gut and picking the Blazers to win in Denver. With those two wins, the Blazers will have secured 50 wins and the three seed. I think they'll rest their best players in the final game of the season and Utah gets the win.
Orlando: Prediction time got a lot more complicated with all the injuries. This is a tough way to wrap up the season. I’m not sure Dame plays against the Rockets, that’s an L. San Antonio on Saturday will be interesting. This should feel like a playoff game, but if the Blazers are still without Davis and Lillard, I don’t think there’s enough firepower to get it done. If there’s a silver lining or reason for optimism, the Blazers beat the Spurs without Lillard earlier this season. I’m just not buying it happening again. That’s a Texas two-step in the loss column. By the time Monday rolls around, there will be urgency for Portland to keep homecourt advantage. I’m banking on a healthier squad by Monday. Flashback of Nurkic wishing the Nuggets a great summer. That final game of the season vs. Utah could matter for seeding purposes. It’s going to be quite the atmosphere at the Moda Center. Blazers step up and go 2-2, reach 50 wins for the season.
Nate: This is going to be the toughest week of games to predict all year because of the Lillard injury. But I’m going to say the Blazers to go 1-3. The one win I think they'll get is against San Antonio. Even shorthanded, I think the Blazers can beat the Spurs. The Blazers have had a knack for putting together some of their best games against teams they're jockeying against for playoff positioning. I think they do it again against San Antonio. However, I don't anticipate Lillard playing Thursday night so I think the Rockets will beat the Blazers. I'll give the edge to the Nuggets at home fighting for their playoff lives. And the last game of the season may decide the No. 3 seed, if Utah continues their winning streak. If the Blazers were 100 percent healthy, I'd pick them but I don't think they will be. So, I'll pick the Jazz.
SEASON-TO-DATE PREDICTION RECORD
- Jared: 51-27
- Nate: 51-27
- Orlando: 50-28
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WHAT IS 3-ON-3 BLAZERS?
Every Thursday, three members of the KGW sports team will answer three questions about the Blazers. You can join the conversation on Facebook during a live chat with our panel every Thursday afternoon at 3. Can't join us on Thursday? Not a problem. You can listen later on the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast.
MEET OUR PANELISTS
- Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
- Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Before he came to KGW, Jared wrote about the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
- Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
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Editor's note: The article initially said the Blazers averaged 87 points per game against the Jazz this season. Portland has averaged 99.7 points per game against Utah.